Spain and France will clash at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday for a spot in the Euro 2024 final. La Roja have been the standout team of the tournament, eliminating hosts Germany in the quarter-finals, while Les Bleus edged past Portugal on penalties. Spain’s impressive run and France’s attacking struggles set the stage for a fascinating semifinal, with both teams eyeing a place in the final at Berlin’s Olympiastadion on July 14.
Spain vs France Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives Spain a slight edge, predicting a 38.2% chance of winning compared to France’s 31.8% in 10,000 pre-match simulations. A draw, leading to extra time as seen in three of the four quarter-finals, is forecasted at 30%.
A high-scoring game is unlikely, given France’s struggles in attack during Euro 2024. They have managed only three goals, two of which were own goals and the other a Kylian Mbappe penalty. In contrast, Spain has netted 11 times in five matches. Defensively, both teams are strong, suggesting a close match. Insidesport.IN predicts a 1-0 win for Spain.
Spain form in Euro 2024
Luis de la Fuente’s side is the only team to have won all five of their matches in Germany, overcoming the hosts 2-1 in extra time in the quarter-finals. Spain has been victorious in 15 of their 19 matches since early 2023, boasting a 79% win rate, the highest of any European nation. The team, inspired by talents like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, has won their last seven games consecutively, a streak not seen since they won 12 in a row between June 2009 and June 2010.
This Spanish team is untraditional, focusing more on clinical efficiency and defensive tenacity than possessional dominance. Spain has had lower possession in two of their five Euro 2024 matches (48% against Germany and 47% against Croatia), more than they had in 44 major tournament games from the 2006 World Cup to the 2022 World Cup.
Lamine Yamal’s impressive form
Yamal has been a key creator, setting up 14 chances at this competition, the most by a Spaniard at a major tournament since Xavi’s 25 at Euro 2012. This is also the highest number of chances created by a teenager at a major tournament since Opta records began (1966 for the World Cup, 1980 for Euros). Yamal has three assists, including a crucial pass for Dani Olmo, with no Spanish player ever registering more assists in a single European Championship.
France form in Euro 2024
In contrast, France has underwhelmed at Euro 2024. They scraped past Portugal on penalties after a goalless draw, failing to impress offensively. Only four goals have been scored in France’s five matches (three for, one against), all from penalties or own goals. France has failed to convert any of their 128 non-penalty shots (86 for France, 42 for opponents), making them the only team since 1980 to take over 50 non-penalty shots at a Euros without scoring.
Kylian Mbappe’s form has been a concern, with just one goal from 20 shots in this tournament, a penalty against Poland. Overall, he has scored once from 34 attempts at the European Championship (3%), compared to 12 goals from 39 shots at the World Cup (31% conversion rate).
Spain vs France Predicted XI
Spain Predicted XI:
Simon: Navas, Nacho, Laporte, Cucurella; Olmo, Rodri, Ruiz: Yamal, Morata, Williams
France Predicted XI:
Maignan; Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez; Kante, Tchouameni, Rabiot; Griezmann; Kolo Muani, Mbappe
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