Netherlands vs Turkey Prediction: Dutch to claim narrow victory over depleted Turks in Euro 2024 quarterfinals

The fourth quarter-final of Euro 2024 features the Netherlands taking on Turkey in what promises to be a thrilling encounter at Berlin’s Olympiastadion. The winners of this match will advance to the semi-finals, where they will face the victors of England’s clash with Switzerland in Düsseldorf. Ahead of the Netherlands vs Turkey Euro Cup game, let us take a look at the predictions

Netherlands vs Turkey Prediction

Turkey caused a major upset by eliminating one of the group stage’s standout teams, Austria, on Tuesday. However, the Opta supercomputer has made the Netherlands the favourites, giving them a 57.8% chance of winning in regulation time. In contrast, Turkey’s chances are pegged at a slimmer 19.7%, with the probability of a draw, which would lead to extra time and potentially penalties, at 22.5%.

Meanwhile in the team hotel… 🏀🎱🏓😜

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Netherlands form in Euro 2024

Ronald Koeman’s side found their form in the last 16 after struggling in the group stage, defeating Romania 3-0. Historically, the Netherlands have advanced from five of their last seven major tournament quarter-finals.This quarter-final marks their first appearance at this stage of the European Championship since 2008. The Dutch have only progressed from three of their last nine knockout ties in this competition.

We can expect plenty of goalmouth action in this match. The Netherlands rank in the top eight teams at Euro 2024 for expected goals (xG), sitting sixth with a total of 6.56 xG. They have also registered the fifth-most shots (63) in the competition. Defensively, Koeman’s team have recorded an expected goals against (xGA) of 3.84 across their four matches, in stark contrast to Turkey’s 8.0 xGA.

Cody Gakpo’s brilliant strike against Romania got the ball rolling, bringing his tournament tally to three goals, a joint-high figure heading into the quarter-finals. Across the 2022 World Cup and Euro 2024, Gakpo has scored six goals, making him the second-highest-scoring European player in that period, behind only Kylian Mbappé (nine). Remarkably, all six of Gakpo’s goals have come in different matches. The only Dutch players to score in more different games at major tournaments are Dennis Bergkamp (10), Robin van Persie (8), and Wesley Sneijder (7).

Turkey form in Euro 2024

Turkey is aiming to win three consecutive matches at the European Championship for the first time and only the second time in major tournaments overall, having previously achieved this feat at the 2002 World Cup when they reached the semi-finals. This quarter-final is Turkey’s fourth at a major tournament, having previously reached this stage at Euro 2000, the 2002 World Cup, and Euro 2008. They advanced to the semi-finals in the latter two tournaments after losing 2-0 to Portugal in 2000.

Turkey will look to 19-year-old Arda Güler for inspiration. Güler, who assisted Merih Demiral’s winner against Austria, is one of just three teenagers to both score and assist a goal in a single Euros, joining the ranks of Wayne Rooney (four goals, one assist) and Cristiano Ronaldo (two goals, two assists) at Euro 2004. Turkey has given six starts to teenagers at Euro 2024—three for Kenan Yildiz and three for Güler—matching the record for a single edition of the finals, held by Spain at Euro 2020 (all for Pedri).

Discipline will be a critical factor for Turkey, as they have received 18 yellow cards at Euro 2024. In the history of the European Championship, only the Czech Republic in 1996 have received more cards in a single edition (20—19 yellow cards, one red).