Once a strong possibility, now it seems to be diminishing as India suffered some major losses in the current WTC cycle when the wins are most needed, and the recent MCG loss against Australia by 184 runs has pulled India’s chances of reaching the WTC 2025 final. Currently, BGT series stands at 2-1 in Australia’s favour, and India will look to make a mark in the last remaining SCG test, which is crucial in many ways. South Africa has already qualified for the WTC final, leaving just one remaining spot.
India has a 52.78% PCT, while Australia is at 61.46%. There’s a chance we may see an Australia vs South Africa WTC final this time at Lord’s. But what will happen if we see some upsets from here and both India and Australia, who are in contention for the second WTC final spot, end their WTC race with the same points percentage? Take a look at what will happen then in that WTC final and who will get through in that case.
What if India and Australia end with the same PCT?
Coming to the points percentage scenario, India currently has 52.78%, which they received after a defeat in Melbourne. They have 114 points in their bank. On the other hand, after a win, Pat Cummins and co. have 61.46%, which is currently giving them the boost. Now, if we assume everything goes in India’s favour and they win the upcoming fifth Test, while Sri Lanka manages to get a draw or win against Australia in upcoming Test, then both India and Australia would be at 55.26% PCT. Australia would not want that, as they are currently in a good position, but if it happens, India could qualify for the WTC final.
According to the ICC WTC 2023-25 playing conditions, it is clearly stated under Clause 16.1.2 that if teams end the group stage with the same identical points percentage, the team with the higher number of series wins will qualify. Since India has played more Tests in this current cycle and mostly performed well, they would have the advantage in such a scenario.
How can India qualify for the WTC 2025 final?
India’s chances of reaching the WTC final are no longer in their hands, which is certainly a shock for Indian fans, as initially, before the New Zealand Test, everything was in India’s favour. Now, losing the MCG Test jeopardizes their chances. However, the hope remains that India needs to win the Sydney Test to gain a significant boost in their percentage and reach the maximum 55.26%. After that, it all depends on Sri Lanka. If the neighbours win the series, it will help India. For instance, if Sri Lanka wins 1-0 or 2-0 against Australia, India will go through. But if Sri Lanka fails and Australia wins even one Test, they will be in the WTC final alongside South Africa.
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