As India and Australia continue their fight down under, the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) 2023–2025 is getting more intense. The competition for the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) final has never been more competitive, with both sides putting in their best effort. Australia replied in the second Test, tying the series at one after India’s impressive showing in Perth. There was a fiercely contested tie in the third Test at the Gabba. The Boxing Day Test at the MCG is again living up to its billing. The first two days belonged to Australia before Nitish Kumar Reddy hammered a match-saving ton for India. However, what would happen if the Boxing Day Test ends in a tie? Let’s examine how the WTC points table might appear.
WTC Points Table if India draw the 4th BGT Test
| Rank | Team | Played | Won | Draw | Lost | Penalties | Points | % Points |
| 1 | South Africa | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 76 | 63.33 |
| 2 | Australia | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 110 | 57.29 |
| 3 | India | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 118 | 54.63 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 81 | 48.21 |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 60 | 45.45 |
| 6 | England | 22 | 11 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 114 | 43.18 |
| 7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 40 | 33.33 |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -3 | 45 | 31.25 |
| 9 | West Indies | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 32 | 24.24 |
Impact on WTC points table for India
At the end of Day 2 of the Boxing Day Test, India was already under pressure, trailing by 310 runs with only five wickets in hand. Australia’s strong first-innings performance on the back of Steve Smith’s superb 140 and high-flying fifty from debutant Sam Konstas put India in a tough spot. However, a 126-run stand between Nitish Kumar Reddy and Washington Sundar had the Australian bowlers on the floor, with the Andhra-born batter remaining unbeaten at 105*. Now with the pitch not offering much to the pacers, this match could really end up as a draw.
If India manages to hold on and the match ends in a draw, India will stay in third position in the WTC standings with 54.63 percentage points. Australia, with a draw in hand, will have 57.29 percentage points, maintaining their second-place standing. This scenario keeps India’s chances of qualification alive but requires several other results to go in their favor.
WTC Final scenario for India
Here are the possible outcomes for India in their quest for the WTC final spot:
- India Win Both Tests (MCG and SCG)
- India secures a spot in the WTC final regardless of other results.
- MCG Ends in a Draw, India Win at SCG
- India would need Sri Lanka to win at least one Test against Australia in their upcoming series. Even two draws in that series would favor India, likely leading to an IND vs SA final.
- India Loses Both Tests (MCG and SCG)
- India will be out of contention for the WTC final.
- MCG Draw, SCG Loss
- This scenario would nearly eliminate India’s chances, leaving them reliant on improbable combinations of results elsewhere.
- Both MCG and SCG End in Draws
a) If Pakistan wins both Tests against South Africa, and Sri Lanka wins both Tests against Australia, the WTC final would be IND vs SL.
b) If South Africa wins both their Tests, and Australia wins both against Sri Lanka, it would result in a SA vs AUS final.
c) If Pakistan wins both Tests against South Africa, and Australia and Sri Lanka share their series 1-1, the WTC final would be AUS vs IND.
d) If South Africa wins both Tests and Sri Lanka wins both Tests, the final would be SA vs SL.
e) If South Africa and Pakistan split their series 1-1, and Australia and Sri Lanka also split their series 1-1, the final would be SA vs AUS.
WTC 2023-25 Points Table
| Rank | Team | Played | Won | Draw | Lost | Penalties | Points | % Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 76 | 63.33 |
| 2 | Australia | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 106 | 58.89 |
| 3 | India | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 114 | 55.88 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 81 | 48.21 |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 60 | 45.45 |
| 6 | England | 22 | 11 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 114 | 43.18 |
| 7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 40 | 33.33 |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -3 | 45 | 31.25 |
| 9 | West Indies | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 32 | 24.24 |
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