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Had Shami been with Bumrah, would the outcome of the India vs Australia Test series have changed?

Had Shami been with Bumrah, would the outcome of the India vs Australia Test series have changed?

Mohammed Shami's fitness robbed not just him but Team India of the chance to continue their Test dominance against and in Australia.

The India vs Australia Test series started 44 days ago. Before it had kicked off, had you asked an Indian fan if a 1-3 loss would be the scoreline they would be fine with? Most would say yes. Coming from a first-ever whitewash at home against New Zealand, the chances of victory in Australia weren’t even possible. That, combined with the absence of Mohammed Shami, who was the only one apart from Jasprit Bumrah from Team India’s 2018 pace quartet, all looked hopeless.

2nd and 3rd pacers hurt India

The script was filled in Perth, where not only did the India cricket team win, but they dominated the hosts. That was off the back of a superhuman performance from Bumrah and a wonderful supporting performance from Mohammed Siraj and Harshit Rana. The three pacers combined took 17 wickets.

They were also aided by the batters, who did well. But to restrict Australia to 104, when India made just 150, was an incredible feat. Then when India scored 487/6, they got them all out for just 238. The hopes of a three-peat looked high.

Cut to today (January 5), a 1-3 defeat seems disappointing. But what is the biggest reason for Team India losing their first Test series against Australia since 2014? What is Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma’s non-performance? KL Rahul not going big after getting starts? Shubman Gill, or Rishabh Pant’s quiet time? The answer is neither of the above. It’s the fast bowling.

The Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2024-25 was a fast bowler’s series. All the spinners combined took just 19 wickets in 5 matches. Team India’s number one bowler, Bumrah, was better than Australia’s best, Pat Cummins, but after that, there was such a drop-off when it came to the second and third pacers that competing just wasn’t possible.

India vs Australia pacers in BGT 2024-25

PacerIndiaAustralia
1st choiceJasprit Bumrah (32 wickets at 13.06)Pat Cummins (25 wickets at 21.36)
2nd choiceMohammed Siraj (20 wickets at 31.15)Josh Hazlewood & Scott Boland (27 wickets at 13.18)
3rd choiceAkash Deep, Harshit Rana & Prasidh Krishna (15 wickets at 38.66)Mitchell Starc (18 wickets at 28.66)

How Shami could have changed the BGT outcome

Now comes the question. Would Shami‘s availability change the outcome of the India vs Australia Test series? The answer is probably. You just can’t give a definitive answer. Australia had not one but three great fast bowlers and Mitchell Starc. In India’s case, you had Bumrah, who was above all, Siraj, who was bowled to the ground, and handy pacers who either weren’t experienced enough (Harshit Rana), weren’t lucky and fit (Akash Deep), or were tried enough (Prasidh Krishna).

Shami’s overall record in Australia isn’t that much better than how Siraj performed this time. But, Shami’s gotten better since he last played a full series in Australia. We all saw what he did in the ODI World Cup 2023. One can imagine with his superior control, skiddy nature, and the amount of movement he extracts from the pitch, he’d been a handful.

Now imagine if Siraj was India’s third and not second bowler. Shami would have bowled well in tandem with Bumrah with the new ball, and considering how much the ball was seaming in most matches, he would have been in the game if and when he was handed the ball. However, instead of this, India had an inexperienced Harshit Rana, who had played just 10 first-class matches. Akash Deep, who bowled well for no wickets basically and then got injured. Prasidh Krishna was a handful in the India A vs Australia A matches but wasn’t tried until the end.

Rohit Sharma and Gautam Gambhir could have played an extra pacer, but they didn’t go for that, and the result is for everyone to see.

Mohammed Shami’s Test record in Australia

MatchesWicketsAverageStrike Rate5w
2014-202083132.1654.202
BGT 2018-1941626.1851.251
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