This is what we call a Boxing Day Test! While Team India and Australia await a gripping Day 5 in Melbourne, two teams really put on a show at the SuperSport Park in Centurion. South Africa and Pakistan played a scintillating Test, following which the Proteas have tasted their qualification for their maiden ICC World Test Championship (WTC) Final spot. They needed a win in this game and they have done it. The game reached a dramatic conclusion, with a defiant partnership between tailenders Marco Jansen and Kagiso Rabada rescuing South Africa from the brink of defeat and sealing a victory that cements their place in the summit clash. But what does this mean for India and their hunt for ICC WTC Final glory? Let us discuss more on it below.
Latest WTC Points table 2023-25 after SA vs PAK 1st Test
| Rank | Team | Played | Won | Draw | Lost | Pen | Points | % Points |
| 1 | South Africa (Q) | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 88 | 66.67 |
| 2 | Australia | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 106 | 58.89 |
| 3 | India | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 114 | 55.88 |
| 4 | NZ | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 81 | 48.21 |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 60 | 45.45 |
| 6 | England | 22 | 11 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 114 | 43.18 |
| 7 | BAN | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -3 | 45 | 31.25 |
| 8 | Pakistan | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 40 | 30.3 |
| 9 | WI | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 32 | 24.24 |
Coming into this Test series, South Africa needed a strong showing against Pakistan to secure their place in the WTC final. Despite a shaky middle-order collapse, their tail-end resilience and stellar bowling attack ensured a hard-fought victory.
Marco Jansen’s composed 16* and Kagiso Rabada’s match-changing 31* in a vital 51-run stand for the ninth wicket proved heartbreaking for Shan Masood and his men. Their combined efforts turned what seemed like a lost cause into a memorable win, pushing their point percentage beyond what their rivals can surpass. With this victory, South Africa will now at least finish second on the WTC points table even if they lose the next second Test against Pakistan.
WTC Final Scenarios for India
South Africa’s win eliminates one of the crucial variables in India’s qualification scenarios. With the Proteas securing a spot, the equation for India is now straightforward but tougher.
Here’s how India’s path to the WTC final looks:
Statistically, there are three possible ways through which Team India can improve their chances of qualification for the WTC Final 2025. Even in the worst-case scenario, Rohit Sharma and co. can’t go lower than where they are already placed but can top the points table with a victory.
| If Result is | Qualification scenario |
|---|---|
| Australia and South Africa win | India remains at 3rd on the points table (go from 55.88% to 52.78% on point percentage) |
| India and South Africa win | India moves up to 2nd on the points table (go from 55.88% to 58.33% on point percentage) |
- India should ideally win both remaining BGT Tests
- A 3-1 series win would push India’s points percentage to 61.11%, securing them the second spot above South Africa. Victories in Melbourne and Sydney and India won’t have to think about anything else.
- If India have BGT at 2-2: If this happens, India would be desperate that Australia don’t win a single match against Sri Lanka in their next two-game away series.
- If India have BGT 2-1: If this happens, India will have a cushion of seeing Australia win a game against SL. This means the final would be between India and South Africa.
- If India lose 3-1: All over for India for WTC Final chances.
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