The Boxing Day Tests are set to provide cricket fans with thrilling contests, historical backdrops, and decisive moments that could shape the trajectory of the World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 cycle. With India clashing against Australia at the iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) and South Africa taking on Pakistan in Centurion, the outcomes of these games could really alter the WTC standings. Here’s a prediction of how things might pan out if India and South Africa emerge victorious in their respective matches.
WTC points table: The Current Scenario
WTC 2023-25 Points Table
| Rank | Team | Played | Won | Draw | Lost | Penalties | Points | % Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 76 | 63.33 |
| 2 | Australia | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 106 | 58.89 |
| 3 | India | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 114 | 55.88 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 81 | 48.21 |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 60 | 45.45 |
| 6 | England | 22 | 11 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 114 | 43.18 |
| 7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 40 | 33.33 |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -3 | 45 | 31.25 |
| 9 | West Indies | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 32 | 24.24 |
As things stand, South Africa lead the WTC points table with a 63.33% points percentage, followed by India at 55.88%. Both teams have an opportunity to enhance their standings, while Australia, currently second, will be desperate to retain their spot in top two. Pakistan, though mathematically in contention, will need a series of miracles to leapfrog the other three teams. Their probability of qualifying for the WTC Final is literally almost zero.
What if India and South Africa win Boxing Day Tests?
Victory for both India and South Africa in their Boxing Day Tests will result in the following WTC standings:
- South Africa: Played 11, Won 7, Drawn 1, Lost 3, Points 88, Points Percentage 66.67%
- India: Played 18, Won 10, Drawn 2, Lost 6, Points 126, Points Percentage 58.33%
- Australia: Slips further behind with a reduced percentage.
India’s rise to second place in this scenario will come at the expense of Australia, whose points percentage will dip, making their qualification route more precarious. South Africa’s commanding position at the top will further cement their claim as favourites to play at Lord’s in 2025.
WTC Points table if India beat Australia at MCG & SA beat PAK in Centurion
| Rank | Team | Played | Won | Draw | Lost | Penalties | Points | % Points |
| 1 | South Africa | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 88 | 66.67 |
| 2 | India | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 126 | 58.33 |
| 3 | Australia | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 106 | 55.21 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 81 | 48.21 |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 60 | 45.45 |
| 6 | England | 22 | 11 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 114 | 43.18 |
| 7 | Bangladesh | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -3 | 45 | 31.25 |
| 8 | Pakistan | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 40 | 30.3 |
| 9 | West Indies | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 32 | 24.24 |
Also, Pakistan’s loss at Centurion will shut their doors for WTC Final qualification, finally. If India and South Africa secure victories, they will not only tighten their grip on the top two spots but also make Australia’s path to the WTC Final significantly harder. For India, staying in the top two will require them to play their best cricket. Despite Australia being a better side in the ongoing BGT, things can take a massive turn in favour of India. A loss in Melbourne will put a massive dent on India’s chances.
India’s WTC Final Qualification after Boxing Day Tests
| If Result is | Qualification scenario |
|---|---|
| Australia and South Africa win or Australia and Pakistan win | India remains at 3rd (go from 55.88% to 52.78%) |
| India and South Africa win or India win and South Africa vs Pakistan ends in draw | India moves up to 2nd (go from 55.88% to 58.33%) |
| India and Pakistan win | India moves up to 1st, South Africa 2nd, and Australia 3rd (go from 55.88% to 58.33%) |
| Australia win and South Africa vs Pakistan ends in draw | India remains at 3rd, Australia 1st, and South Africa 2nd (go from 55.88% to 52.78%) |
| Both matches end in draw | India remains at 3rd (go from 55.88% to 54.78%) |
