When India won at Perth, they regained the top spot in the WTC points table, but suddenly after losing the second test, they slipped to third, showing the fluctuating nature of the World Test Championship standings. It looks like no team is secure unless they actually secure their final tickets. However, the current scenario is that South Africa could become the first team to qualify for the WTC finals, while the real fight seems to be between India and Australia. The two teams are currently playing a five-match Test series. As mentioned, India won at Perth, and Australia won a pink-ball Test match. The third Test is currently going on at the Gabba.
There are a lot of mathematical equations about how India can qualify for the WTC final, as the winning equations are simple—how many matches India wins will strengthen their chances of getting into the WTC final. But the question is, what will happen if India loses the Gabba Test? Will they still be in contention, or will their chances be fully diminished? So how many matches does India need to win if they lose the Gabba Test?
Can India qualify for WTC final in 2025?
If we assume that India will lose the 3rd Test against Australia, then the chances will become slim. However, the WTC final dream will not be shattered. Although many permutations and combinations will come into play, the scenario could be 3-2 if India loses the Gabba Test but wins the last two. In that case, India would need Sri Lanka to secure at least a draw against Australia in the upcoming 2-match Test series, which Sri Lanka will play at their home ground. This means India would need to rely on their neighbors to help them. In total, since this is India’s last series, they will need to win both remaining games and also depend on the other factors mentioned.
Updated WTC points table
| Rank | Team | Matches | Wins | Losses | Draws | No Result | Points | PCT |
| 1 | South Africa | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 76 | 63.33 |
| 2 | Australia | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 102 | 60.71 |
| 3 | India | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 110 | 57.29 |
| 4 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 45.45 |
| 5 | England | 21 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 22 | 114 | 45.24 |
| 6 | New Zealand | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 69 | 44.23 |
| 7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 33.33 |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 45 | 31.25 |
| 9 | West Indies | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 24.24 |
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