Rain has played a huge role in shaping the ICC Champions Trophy Group B semi-final race, and as a result, Australia have qualified despite playing only one full match. Meanwhile, Afghanistan’s hopes are all but over, barring a miracle of unimaginable proportions. South Africa, meanwhile, have also put one step into the final four. They have a game against out-of-place England on March 1.
Champions Trophy Group B semifinal scenario
How can South Africa qualify?
With one semi-final spot still up for grabs, South Africa are in pole position to secure their place. They only need to avoid a heavy defeat against already-eliminated England to join Australia in the final four. Afghanistan, on the other hand, are holding onto a mathematical miracle that is virtually impossible.
- If SA lose by 207+ runs or fail to chase a target of 300 within 11.1 overs, they will be eliminated, and Afghanistan will qualify.
- Any other loss will see South Africa qualify on NRR.
How can Afghanistan qualify?
Realistically, Afghanistan are almost out. But mathematically, they still have one last hope – England must demolish South Africa.
For Afghanistan to pull off the greatest escape, England need to beat SA by 207+ runs (assuming a 300-run first innings total). If England chase, they must do so within 11.1 overs to overturn Afghanistan’s negative NRR and send them to the semis.
How can England qualify?
They cannot. England have already been eliminated after two straight losses. Even if they beat South Africa, they will only reach 2 points—insufficient to make the top two.
Updated Group B Points Table
| Team | Mat | Won | Lost | Tied | NR | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia (Q) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +0.475 |
| South Africa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2.140 |
| Afghanistan | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -0.990 |
| England (E) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.305 |
Key:
- (Q) – Qualified
- (E) – Eliminated
Potential Semi-Final Matchups
- If South Africa win or avoid a massive loss, they will join Australia in the semis.
- If Afghanistan miraculously qualify, they will join Australia in the semis.
- India vs Australia & South Africa vs New Zealand (Likely scenario if India beat NZ).
- India vs South Africa & Australia vs New Zealand (If NZ top Group A).
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