Daniil Medvedev has once again lost an Australian Open final after being two sets up. This begs the question: is it just sheer luck or a mental roadblock for the former world no. 1?
One can excuse his loss in the 2022 Australian Open final, as he was going against one of the greatest tennis players of all time, Rafael Nadal. But is losing to first-time Grand Slam finalist Jannik Sinner after being 2-0 up justified?
The answer is complex. Daniil Medvedev had started as well as one could against Sinner. He was outplaying the Italian in every department.
Knowing Medvedev, one could expect him to serve better and come out on top in long rallies. But the Russian was leading Sinner in aces, winners, net points won, and made fewer unforced errors.
So, what changed? Well, for starters, Jannik Sinner started playing better. Playing in his first-ever Grand Slam final, Sinner was visibly tensed. He was making uncharacteristic errors in the first two sets. But not all credit for the comeback goes to him.
Medvedev is a master tactician, and to put Sinner off, he started returning serves from near the baseline instead of standing a couple of meters back like in his previous matches.
Having spent six more hours on the court than Sinner, Daniil Medvedev knew he’d lose because of fatigue if he got into long rallies. So, he started hitting big at the start of the match. He was serving and hitting faster than in any of his previous matches, which threw Sinner off completely.
Did Daniil Medvedev choke?
Medvedev was playing at a very high level in the first two sets. But maintaining that form was always going to be impossible. His level dropped in the third set, and his more than 22 hours spent on the court started to show. This, combined with Sinner overcoming the nerves of playing in his first Grand Slam moment, is what doomed him.
People will label this as a choke, but in the match where he already started with a disadvantage (fatigue), winning despite being 2-0 would have been a tall task.
With this loss, he’s 3-0 in the Australian Open Finals and 1-5 in the Grand Slam Finals. Will he ever win the Australian Open? With Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz already established, it looks like winning the ‘Happy Slam’ would be much more difficult for the ‘hardcourt specialist’.
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