T20 World Cup Semifinal Race: 2 matches, 2 spots, 4 contenders

The business end of T20 World Cup 2024 is here. South Africa have knocked hosts West Indies out to join England in the semifinals. With that, there are only two spots on offer with two matches to go in Super 8 stage. As many as four teams are still in the race for the remaining two spots.

England became the first team to reach the T20 World Cup semifinals with a clinical 10-wicket thrashing of USA in Barbados on Sunday. On Monday morning, South Africa also joined England with a thrilling chase in Antigua.

Teams in Semifinal Race

Qualified	In semis race	Knocked out
England	India	USA
South Africa	Australia	West Indies
	Afghanistan
	Bangladesh

T20 World Cup Points Table

T20 WC qualification scenarios

IND vs AUS

While India Cricket Team are just a point away from sealing their deal, it’s still a three-way contest from Super 8 Group 1. Australia have to win against India while also hoping that Afghanistan do not surpass their NRR.

India qualification scenario (NRR +2.425)

• Win against Australia and seal the semifinal spot.
• If rain washes out the match in Gros Islet, India will still qualify for the semifinals with 5 points.
• If India lose, they can still qualify, provided Afghanistan do not surpass Australia’s NRR.
• But if India lose to Australia by less than 41 runs or after 15 overs, India will qualify on a better NRR.
• However, if the above four scenarios are not satisfied, Indica can still qualify if Bangladesh beats Afghanistan.
• If Afghanistan win by less than 80 runs or after 9.2 overs, India can still qualify on better NRR.

Australia qualification scenario (+0.223)

• Beat India to go to 4 points and hope Bangladesh beat Afghanistan.
• Australia can directly qualify for semifinals if they beat India by 41 runs or more. They will surpass India’s NRR.
• If Australia lose to India, they can still qualify if Afghanistan do not surpass their NRR.

AFG vs BAN

Afghanistan scripted history beating Australia for the first time in T20 cricket. And that also kept them alive despite heavy defeat to India. However, despite being on zero points, Bangladesh can still qualify for T20 World Cup semifinals mathematically.

Afghanistan qualification scenario (NRR -0.650)

• If IND vs AUS is washed out, Afghanistan will only need to beat Bangladesh.
• If Afghanistan beat Bangladesh and Australia beat India, all three will be tied on 4 points each. NRR will decide who goes through.
• Afghanistan have an NRR of -0.650. And they need to win by at least 83 runs to surpass India’s NRR.

Bangladesh qualification scenario (NRR -2.489)

• Bangladesh are worst-placed in Group 1. However, they are not out of the T20 World Cup semifinal race yet.
• Firstly, Bangladesh will need to win by 31 runs to go above Afghanistan’s NRR.
• However, Bangladesh will also need India to beat Australia by 55 runs or more.
• With three teams tied on 2 points each, Bangladesh can sneak past on a slightly better NRR.
• However, if Australia win, Bangladesh can still go through. In that case, Australia must beat India by 41 runs or more.